Corporate profits are at an all-time high. However, the tax revenue from this enormous economic boon are near the all-time lows caused by the recession in the early 1980′s. There are many causes, but the result is a clear divergence.
The invention of shipping containers had an enormous effect on international trade, apparently much larger than trade agreements. A team of European researchers discovered that adoption of shipping containers resulted in a 320% increase in trade over five years compared to a 45% increase over twenty years resulting from a free trade agreement. In addition to the monetary gains, containers radically reduced theft rates and time required to unpack and pack ships, thus reducing time in port.
–from The Economist
North American oil production, dark green in the chart, has been undergoing explosive supply growth since 2010. Between the new extraction methods used in the US and continued expansion of the Alberta tar sands in Canada, the supply and extraction technology coming from North America will change the global oil market radically over the next five years. Consider the following quote from the International Energy Agency’s press release accompanying this graph:
“The supply shock created by a surge in North American oil production will be as transformative to the market over the next five years as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released today.”
–from Business Insider and the International Energy Agency
Is the highest paid employee in your state a college sports coach? The answer is almost certainly yes. The only states with deans or presidents as their highest paid employees are in states whose major state university don’t play in large conferences and, as a result, don’t produce high sports revenue.
Delinquent mortgages are at their lowest level since 2008. Fewer than 5,000,000 loans are between 30 days past due and foreclosure.
–from Calculated Risk
The employment-population ratio, the measure of the number of employed civilians of working age compared to total civilians of working age, has dropped 4.9% from the most recent peak of 63.4% in December 2006 to 58.5% in March 2013. The last time the ratio was this low, prior to the 2007 downturn, was October of 1983.
For more information, see our Employment Report.
–Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve
Americans are continuing to de-leverage and this trend is very clear in a recent New York Fed study that shows fewer young people are buying houses are cars, although nearly 45% of them are attending college.
–from The Atlantic